Simulation Model-Based Evaluation of a Survey Program with Reference to Risk Analysis
2006
Chang, K.Y. (Animal Health Division, Livestock Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Gwacheon, Republic of Korea) | Park, S.I. (Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, Republic of Korea), E-mail: paksi@kangwon.ac.kr
A stochastic simulation model incorporated with Reed-Frost approach was derived for evaluating diagnostic performance of a test used for a screening program of an infectious disease. The Reed-Frost model was used to characterize the within-herd spread of the disease using a hypothetical example. Specifically, simulation model was aimed to estimate the number infected animals in an infected herd, in which imperfect serologic tests are performed on samples taken from herds and to illustrate better interpreting survey results at herd-level when uncertainty inevitably exists.
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