[Modelling of dairy cattle breeding productivity on the basis indistinct sets theory]
2007
Mozol', A., Belarus State Economic Univ., Minsk (Belarus) | Samokhovets, M., Agricultural Production Cooperative Borichevichi, Pinsk reg. (Belarus)
For more precise economic forecasting of social and economic processes in dairy industry of the Republic of Belarus it is proposed to use the elements of fractal analysis, principles of local exogenicity and global determinancy, long-term memory of time series which allow to take into consideration the synergetic influence of production and hazardous factors. Milk productivity model for the precise forecasting of average annual yield of milk and increasing of stochastic method accuracy of the modeling process are proposed. Number time series of milk yield and its bar chart from 1970 till 2006 by the example of dairy industry enterprise Borichevichi are analysed. Algorithm of conversion of number time series into the linguistic one on the basis of interval method is proposed. Linguistic time series of milk yield and its bar chart are analysed. Method of calculation of the optimal level of milk production taking into consideration the following indices is presented: expenses per 1 head, expenses per 1 centner of milk, expenses increase, maximum expenses; market price, receipts, receipts increase, maximum income, maximum profits; profits and profitability. Realized calculations made it possible to conclude that for the increasing of milk productivity it is necessary to realize the following measures: variation of feeding types and levels in accordance with the forecasting productivity; application of the alleged nonsynchronous productivity of different breeds and age groups; planning of forward and futures transactions in the sphere of interregional cooperation
Show more [+] Less [-]AGROVOC Keywords
Bibliographic information
This bibliographic record has been provided by National Academy of Sciences of Belarus