Demand forecast of domestic cheese product under trade liberalization: POS data analysis
2008
Okada, M.(Kyushu Univ., Fukuoka (Japan)) | Hokazono, S. | Maeda, K. | Kano, H.
In recent years, the demand for cheese has been increasing though the demand for other dairy products has been declining in Japan. Japanese Government has tried to support the enhancement of cheese production. Accordingly, major cheese manufacturers have been building up large-scale factories and are increasing production of cheese. However, there is a possibility that the demand for imported cheese increases while the demand for domestic cheese product remains the same level if the tariff of cheese is reduced by WTO agriculture negotiation in the future. In this paper, we analyze the substitutability between domestic cheese product and imported one by making use of POS data. Moreover, we forecast future demand for the domestic cheese product assuming two trade scenarios under the condition of reduction in tariff. The main results are as follows. First of all, the substitutability between domestic cheese product and imported one is low. Besides, the demand for the domestic cheese product continues to increase if the tariff is reduced. Therefore, it can be said that the support of the government to cheese production is appropriate.
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