A study on the recovery condition from the '2000 Dzud' and its characteristics: A continued survey in Bayantsagaan County in Tuv Prefecture, Mongolia

The objective of this paper is to clarify the characteristics and defining factors of the recovery from the '2000 Dzud (snow damages)', which occurred in three consecutive years from the end of 1999 to 2001. The distinctive features of the '2000 Dzud' are that the devastating Dzud occurred in three consecutive years and that serious damage was caused, mainly to large livestock. The state of recovery from the 2000 Dzud is characteristic in that, although the total number of livestock recovered to its pre-Dzud level in 2006, four years after the event, large livestock were slow to recover their numbers and the increase in the total number of livestock was solely dependent on the increase of the goat population. The state of recovery is defined by the degree and extent of the Dzud damage (Note 12), and natural and technical factors including the breeding characteristics of livestock. Among other factors pointed out are the technical factors including the relative advantage of cashmere production, and individual factors including differences in the impact of the Dzud damage, differences in the situation of the maintenance of the labor force and property acquisition, and differences in expenditures for family members. Large livestock are slow to recover their numbers, presumably because of their breeding characteristics. Also, behind the change in the composition of livestock is a decrease in the demand for large livestock as a result of the shift of transportation means to automobiles and other vehicles, and the change in the demand for livestock products as typified by cashmere. Goats and sheep have been increasing relatively rapidly because of their shorter gestation period compared with larger livestock. In addition, backed by a strong demand for cashmere, goats marked a notable increase due to an effort to make up for the decline in the sales of other livestock. Considering the price slump of cashmere (Note 13) and the small demand for goat meat, the number of goats may decrease. However, as more importance is placed on the economic efficiency of livestock after the shift to a market economy, the recovery in livestock numbers after the Dzud seems to assume a role to facilitate the scrap-and-build system of livestock species.