Modeling and forecasting the temporal dynamics of helminthosporium leaf spot and Rhizoctonia sheath blight of corn
2004
Raymundo, A.D., Philippines Univ. Los Banos, College, Laguna (Philippines). Dept. of Plant Pathology
A model of Rhizoctonia sheath blight of corn using the STELLA modeling software is developed. It considers four processes: formation of lesion, vertical and the horizontal disease development, and disease incidence progression. Inputs to the model were obtained from published data. Based on the model, lesion formation is estimated from the germination of sclerotia as affected by temperature while the rate of lesion formation is affected by relative humidity. Vertical disease development is measured through the increase of the length of the lesion per day depending on the prevailing temperature. Lesion length, which can get in contact with adjacent plants, affects horizontal disease development. Disease incidence was calculated based on the ratio of the total infected plants and the total number of plants in the area. Sensitivity analysis in terms of initial number of inoculum and varying temperatures was included to test the shift in the number of lesions formed and lesion length increase, respectively. Simulated data on lesion length compare favorably with observed data.
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