Modelling of liberalization of single milk market in the SR | Modelovanie liberalizácie jednotného trhu s mliekom v SR
2008
Božík, M., Výskumný ústav ekonomiky poľnohospodárstva a potravinárstva, Bratislava (Slovak Republic)
The contribution provides an analysis of the current situation in milk production and it deals also with possible future effects concerning the cancellation of restrictions in milk production in Slovakia. It was done on the basis of the large RIAFE impact study dealing with a progressive increasing of milk quotas up to 2008 and also with their total cancellation in 2015. The reform of the milk sector should contribute for its competitiveness enhancement at the world markets. On the other side it presents particular risks because after cancellation of milk quotas some countries should increase their milk production with following decrease of milk price. Concerning the present situation in the Slovak milk sector (a decrease of milking cows number and milk production) it should affect the Slovak milk and dairy products market very significantly. Model results of individual scenarios of the milk sector reform imply that in the future the Slovak milk production will be very significantly influenced by improving of milk yield and profit-cost ratio linked to the producers with high deliveries concentration and high utilization of the fixed capital allocated in objects with the high technology and high level of animal nutrition. Attention of the national agrarian policy should be focused on those producers eventually on the producers with potential to reach such level. Even though, the crucial impact on milk production will be connected with the domestic demand development. Attained results confirm that in the Visegrad Four region Poland has the most competitive potential but also the low expansion potential. It is possible to state that expansion of milk production in Slovakia is not contingent on production capacities, the attention should be aimed at investments to genetic material, nutrition and new technologies.
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