Analysis of the resource substitution about Chinese comprehensive grain production capacity increase | 我国粮食综合产能提高过程中的资源替代分析

Chinese. 从资源、资源替代及粮食综合产能的内涵界定出发，对粮食生产资源中的自然资源与社会资源的内部替代关系进行分析。以1978年以来粮食生产4种要素（资本、劳动、技术、粮食播种面积）投入量及各年粮食产量为基础，分别利用柯布-道格拉斯及超越对数函数构建计量线性回归模型，并对其经济意义进行分析。在柯布-道格拉斯粮食生产函数模型中，粮食播种面积、资本、技术的边际产出弹性系数分别为0.084，0.179和0.109，劳动的边际弹性不显著；在超越对数函数模型中，资本、劳动、技术的边际产出弹性系数分别为0.393， 0.079和0.424，粮食播种面积的边际产出弹性不显著。1978-2006年，随着年份的增加，4种要素的产出弹性呈逐渐增加趋势，粮食播种面积与资本、技术、劳动间的替代弹性均较高。资本、技术、劳动投入在一定程度上可替代可耕地面积的日渐不足。

English. The substitution relationship for food-producing between the natural resources and social resources is studied from the connotation of resource. This paper takes 4 kinds of factors (capital, labor, technology, sown area of grain) inputs and grain yield each year since 1978 as foundation, respectively using Cobb-Douglas and Translog production function to construct linear regression model and analyze their economic significance. In Cobb-Douglas production function model, the marginal output elasticity of sown area of grain, capital, technology is 0.084, 0.179, 0.109 respectively, the elasticity of labor output is not significant; in Translog production function model, the marginal output elasticity of capital, labor, technology is 0.323, 0.079, 0.424 respectively, the elasticity of sown area of grain output is not significant. From 1978-2006, the elasticity of 4 kinds of factors increases with the years, the elasticity of capital, labor, technology, sown area of grain is all high. To some extent, capital, technology and labor inputs can replace the shortage of sown area of grain.