Trends scenario of fruits and grape production's volume in the city of Belgrade [Serbia] | Scenario kretanja obima proizvodnje voća i grožđa na teritoriji grada Beograda [Srbija]
2009
Subić, J., Institut za ekonomiku poljoprivrede, Beograd (Serbia) | Cvijanović, D., Institut za ekonomiku poljoprivrede, Beograd (Serbia) | Vasiljević, Z., Poljoprivredni fakultet, Beograd - Zemun (Serbia)
In order to evaluation of certain measures, as well as to enunciate forms and forthcoming supports to agriculture and rural areas development (by financial indicators), the necessity of giving the expert evaluation on possible future trends in agriculture (regarding land, production and investments) occurs. Taking into consideration the significance of agriculture for whole economic development, the basic aim of this paper is perception of possible future trends in production of fruits and grape on the territory of city of Belgrade. The projections have been done according to statistical data for period of 1992 - 2006, i.e. for 15 years long period. Accordingly, the methodological approaches were used. The first one tries to give an answer to a question: What could happen? The second one tries to give an answer on following question: What should happen, if we want to realize specific strategic goals? Starting point of the scenario analysis is that there should be expected great annual changes in production size of fruits and grape, while they are not realistic (regarding walnut could be attained growth rate of 0.54%, raspberry 0.92%, and for grape, possible growth rate is 1.50%). In some specific cases is expectable to attain even higher increase (regarding apple, possible increase of 2.92%; pear 1.91%, plum 2.00%, peach 1.92%, and finally, regarding strawberry, possible growth rate is 2.09%).
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