Forecast import volumes of frozen white shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamai) in the United States with time series analysis
2010
Sukanya Yongprayoon(Kasetsart University, Bangkok (Thailand). Faculty of Agro-Industry. Department of Agro-Industry Technology Management) | Pornthipa Ongkunaruk(Kasetsart University, Bangkok (Thailand). Faculty of Agro-Industry. Department of Agro-Industry Technology Management)
Objectives of this research are to study the appropriate forecast method for frozen white shrimp import quantity to U.S. and for export quantity from Thailand to U.S. using time series analysis techniques. The frozen shrimp manufacturers need to forecast export quantity so that they can plan for white shrimp procurement in advance. The result shows that the best method for forecasting the import quantity of frozen shrimp to U.S. in 2010 is Holt-Winters' Multiplicative method using quarterly data starting from February and four years data from September, 2005 to August, 2009. Similarly, the best method for forecasting the frozen shrimp export quantity from Thailand to U.S. is Seasonal Multiplicative method using quarterly data starting from February and two years data from September, 2007 to August, 2009.
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