Regionalisation and determination of drought indices and prediction of their influence on crop yield in Qazvin Province.
2009
Yusef Gomrok Chi, Afshin | Heydari, Nader | Danesh Kar Arasteh, Peyman | Kazemi, Mohammad Shafi`
The objective of this research is to determine and evaluate drought indices, and intensity-duration-expansion of droughts occurred in the studied area (Qazvin province, Iran). The other objective was to develop a methodology for drought prediction. The results of drought monitoring indicate that the standard precipitation index is a suitable index for drought monitoring. Interpretations of drought monitoring data and developed drought maps, indicated that the most sensitive region in facing with drought in Qazvin province is Qazvin city area. The risk of long-duration drought occurrence maps in different years, indicated more severe droughts in central, western, north-east, and southern areas of the region. Evaluation of drought prediction ability, indicates that, three months drought predictions using drought effective index is possible and this prediction has an accuracy of with R2=0.9 in the first phase of the model. These results also indicated that, with using more monthly data of the past, the prediction accuracy will increase more. Using available data, and with multi variable regression models, the production yield model of the region also was developed.
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