New method for defining multiple coincidence of flood waves in complex river systems | Nova metoda za definisanje višestruke koincidencije poplavnih talasa
2010
Prohaska, S., Institut za vodoprivredu Jaroslav Černi, Beograd (Serbia) | Ilić, A., Institut za vodoprivredu Jaroslav Černi, Beograd (Serbia)
Assessment of statistical significance of future flooding in complex hydrological conditions of flood wave formation on the mouths of major river tributaries, as well as the selection of design hydrological parameters for construction of flood protection facilities in these areas, remains a priority task for contemporary hydrological science. So far, the applied classical approach of one-dimensional assessment of probability, in a situation where floods in two or more streams do not occur simultaneously, does not give satisfactory results in the evaluation of flood risks. It is necessary to develop such a procedure that will define the probability of flood in the downstream area on a multidimensional space of probabilities of floods at the inflow profiles of the main river and tributaries. In other words, it is necessary to account for the problem of coincidence of floods in the complex river system. The subject of this research is a practical solution to this problem. In this particular case, the procedure for defining multiple dependencies of flood occurrence on the main river and tributaries is developed, i.e. a practical method is offered for defining of multiple coincidences of flood wave on the Danube and its tributaries, Tisa and Sava rivers. At this stage of development of the mathematical model, the flood wave volume was accepted as representative parameter for evaluating the importance of the flood. The paper shows practical examples of partial and multiple coincidence of flood waves on the Danube, Tisa and Sava rivers.
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