Annex A: the Sudan Gezira scheme
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Since 1950, Italy's output in real terms has grown at a rate of about 5 percent per year, which is slightly higher than the rate of growth in most of the rest of Western Europe. Italian output is now 40 percent above what it was before the war. Italy is in a good position to compete with other Western European countries, for while they are beginning to face labor shortages, Italy is abundantly supplied. Moreover, as the rest of Western Europe outgrows its domestic fuel and raw material base, Italy's comparative disadvantage in these respects matters less. Thus, unless there is a general recession in Europe, the trend of increasing output in Italy should continue, her competitive position should improve and her economy should grow somewhat faster than the economies of the rest of Western Europe. Agricultural output should increase by perhaps one-fifth by 1964 as a result of the large investment over the last six years in land reclamation and irrigation and the spread generally of improved farm techniques. The two basic problems which the Vanoni Plan is designed to overcome by 1964 have not yet been fully solved and extraordinary efforts will have to continue at least until the end of the period of the Plan. In addition, the growth of the Italian economy should, in the long run, be helped by the establishment of a common market in Western Europe, provided her agricultural products will be able to move freely enough. Moreover, Italy's balance of payments is singularly sensitive to changes in living standards in the rest of Western Europe and the Western Hemisphere. This general assessment of the economic outlook is predicated on the assumption that economic growth will not be obstructed by political developments along lines that might inhibit the pursuit of healthy financial and economic policies.
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