External Evaluation of IMF Surveillance
1999
T. Bernes | J. Crow
Independent report of the policy impact of IMF monitoring reports on the economic policy of its member countries. Based on detailed review of 12 countries (Brazil, Chile, China, the Czech Republic, India, Japan, Korea, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Sweden, Thailand, and the USA).Finds that:Quality of IMF analysis and advice in bilateral and multilateral surveillance is high, though capacity to deal with structural issues of non-financial nature is limitedNeed to focus on international situation as well as country-specific evaluationconcern among non-national observers that surveillance reporting was not frank enoughproblems of speed and intra-instititutional transfer of knowledege governments often do not heed IMF warnings. Whilst considered constructive by officials, IMF impact on country policies is secondary to domestic forces, and less than many outside observers believe. In the case of four countries that went into crisis, report judged that the single most important factor limiting Fund impact was a difficult internal political situationthe need to focus surveillance more directly on the international aspects of a country's situation, the linkages across countries and the lessons countries can learn from other experiences
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