Looking ahead: long-term prospects for Africa’s agricultural development and food security

This paper explores and evaluates the consequences of various policies related to food security in Africa based on projections for the year 2025, focusing on agricultural production. Using computer models, the authors show how three different policy scenarios are likely to affect the supply of, demand for, and trade of crops. These show that the number of malnourished children could rise as high as 41.9 million or fall as low as 9.4 million by 2025.A 'business as usual' scenario assumes a continuation of current trends and existing plans in policy and investment. Agricultural production grows modestly to 2025. The percentage of malnourished children falls from 32.8 to 28.2 percent, but the absolute number of malnourished children rises from 32.7 million in 1997 to 38.3 million in 2025.A 'pessimistic scenario' envisions a future in which trends in agricultural production and nutrition deteriorate. Malnutrition in Africa proliferates under this scenario. The total number of malnourished children in Sub-Saharan Africa escalates from 32.7 million to 55.1 million in 2025.A 'vision scenario' attempts to show what type of transformation would be necessary for Africa to reach the Millenium Development Goal (MDG) target of cutting the proportion of people suffering from hunger in half by 2015. By increasing investments, population growth slows, but gross domestic product and crop productivity increase significantly. Available kilocalories per capita increase markedly in Sub-Saharan Africa, while the total number of malnourished children is reduced to 9.4 million in 2025. Notably, the percentage of malnourished children under five years old meets—or comes close to meeting—the proposed MDG target of cutting the percentage of malnourished children in half by 2015 in all African regions.The model was also used to simulate other conditions. It is shown that improved water harvesting can result in increased effective rainfall for agricultural use in rainfed areas. Reducing marketing margins leads to an increase in cereal production and demand in Africa. Three scenarios were projected for trade liberalisation on Africa, the outcome indicating that full liberalisation offers substantial net economic benefits.The various scenarios presented by the paper point to common policy priorities for addressing food and nutrition security in Africa. These priorities include:reform of agricultural policies, trade, and tariffsincreased investment in rural infrastructure, education, and social capitalbetter management of crops, land, water, and inputsincreased agricultural research and extensiongreater investments in women