Benefit-cost analysis and utilization potential evaluation of different Miscanthus propagation systems | 不同繁殖技术芒草的种植成本估算与应用潜力评价

Chinese. 为筛选适合我国国情的芒草产业化的低成本繁殖技术，根据国外相对成熟的种植措施，利用我国的农业生产数据，对5种可行繁殖技术的后代种植成本进行估算。结果表明：5种繁殖系统的后代材料在种植密度、除草剂类型及施用量、施肥量存在差异最大；估算种植成本变异幅度为3072．0～12225．3元／hm. ，其中种子直播法成本最低，而微繁育苗移栽法最高；在各项投入要素中种植材料与化肥的成本最高，合计约占总体生产成本的70％。此外，还利用SWOT法对5种繁殖技术的利用潜力予以评价。结果表明：在芒草产业化的初期，根茎直播法将被广泛采用；随着技术的进步，根茎与茎秆育苗移栽法将会逐步取代根茎直播法；最后，种子直播法与微繁育苗移栽法将会主导芒草的商业化生产市场。

English. In order to screening the optimal propagation method for China Miscanthus bioenergy industry,establishment cost ot five available propagation systems were estimated in this study. Major cost factors for Miscanthus propagation and establishment in western countries and China agricultural production data such as the production materials price, machine cost and labour salary were used for benefit-cost analysis. The results showed that= significant differences were found between establishing offspring propagated from five different methods in terms of planting density,herbicide type and application amount,fertilizer rate,the estimated cost varied largely from 3 072.0 - 12 225.3 yuan based on the per hectare total establishment cosh micro-propagated plantlets approach cost the highest whereas the seeds method the Ioweshthe propagation material and fertilizer cost were among the highest expenditure accounting for almost 70% of the total establishment cost together. The utilization potential of the five propagation methods was evaluated by using the SWOT analysis method. The results suggested that directly rhizome planting method might play an important role at the initial stage of Miscanthus industrialization; however, alternative approaches such as rhizome and stem derived plugs will be expected to become dominated methods for the development of the Miscanthus in the long run.