Modeling and forecasting wheat yield of Pakistan
Ullah, S. (University of Sargodha (Pakistan). Univ. Coll. of Agriculture) | Badar-ud-Din (Alharam Coll., Faisalabad (Pakistan)) | Haider, G. (International Islamic Univ., Islamabad (Pakistan))
Most commonly weather data over the growing season is used for estimation the yield of wheat. But the grain exporters & planning departments of government need to know about the yield before the wheat is sown, to set their exporting or importing targets. In this paper a time series analysis method is used to forecast the wheat yield for 2011 to 2020. For this purpose, after studying all the diagnostic checks, appropriate model was found to be ARIMA (1,0,1). To check the stationary of the time series three methods, graph of original time series, Correlogram and unit root tests were used and correlation coefficient at different lags was observed for modeling. Data for the above said purpose was obtained from Agricultural journal of UAF and yield is forecasted.
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