Linking Public Investment Programs and SPAHD Macro Models : Methodology and Application to Aid Requirements

Agénor, Pierre-Richard; Bayraktar, Nihal; Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel

Linking Public Investment Programs and SPAHD Macro Models : Methodology and Application to Aid Requirements

2006

Agénor, Pierre-Richard | Bayraktar, Nihal | Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel

The authors propose a "bottom up" approach to link public investment programs with a class of macro models recently developed to quantify Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD) in low-income countries. The methodology involves establishing constant-price projections of investment outlays (disaggregated into infrastructure, education, and health), spending on maintenance and other goods and services, salaries, and user charges. These estimates are incorporated in a SPAHD macro framework to calculate, under alternative scenarios, domestic financing, foreign borrowing, and aid requirements. The authors also evaluate the impact on growth and indicators associated with the Millennium Development Goals. They use illustrative applications, based on a SPAHD model for Niger, to highlight the link between tax reform and aid requirements.

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AGROVOC Keywords

accounting allocation balance of payments debt debt servicing developing countries development economics diseases economic growth education elasticities elasticity electricity exports fixed capital growth growth rate health health services income infant investment macroeconomics maintenance millennium development goals population density poverty reduction private investment private sector public debt public education public enterprises public expenditure public investment public sector public services public utilities roads savings side effects social indicators taxation telecommunications unemployment wages

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Publisher

World Bank, Washington, DC

Other Subjects

Domestic taxation; Deficits; Net foreign assets; Aggregate demand; Education system; Life expectancy; Rate of investment; Public sector employees; Investment flows; Policy research; Public spending; Foreign debt; Economic cooperation; Negative externalities; Tax revenues; Calibration process; Tax reform; Gdp; Net exports; Progress; Macroeconomic framework; Tax payments; Political economy; Tax effort; User charges; Consumer price index; Infant mortality rates; Labor market; Public capital; Inventory; Domestic tax; External financing; Conditionality; Capital stock; Policy decisions; Expenditures; Macroeconomic model; Infant mortality; Labor supply; Macroeconomic variables; Poor households; Impact on health; Moral hazard; Educational attainment; Budget constraint; Interest rate; Poverty reduction strategies; Central bank; Total spending; Infant mortality rate; Development objectives; Capital expenditure; Policy implications; Public investment in infrastructure; Public investments; International development; Tax rate; Provision of health services; Government debt; Public investment program; Budget framework; Foreign capital; Safe drinking water; Contingent liabilities; Budget deficit; Technical assistance; Public assets; Access to safe water; Public infrastructure; Net present value; Comprehensive development; Tax revenue; Medium-term expenditure; Development strategies; Private capital; Human development; Infrastructure services; Fiscal accounts; Private consumption; Budget balance; Real income; Tax rates; Macroeconomic models; Public; Investment projects; Government budget; Investment needs; Interest payments; Rate of growth; Private savings; Adjustment policies; Government spending; Policy research working paper; Public investment in education; Rate of return; Formal analysis; Foreign borrowing; Consumption expenditure; Primary deficits; Disposable income; Tax policy; Public investment programs; Medium-term expenditure frameworks; Government expenditure; Real exchange rate; Low-income countries; Expenditure data; Domestic borrowing; User fees; Capital expenditures; Debt relief; Human life; Exogenous variables; State university; Per capita income; Tax; Domestic market; Debt sustainability; Distributional issues; Capital inflows; Domestic good; Low-income country

License

Policy Research Working Paper; No. 3944http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/World BankCC BY 3.0 Unported

Source

Policy Research Working Paper; No. 3944

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Linking Public Investment Programs and SPAHD Macro Models : Methodology and Application to Aid Requirements

2006

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