New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy

Matta, Samer

New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy

2014

Matta, Samer

Weak economic statistics in Lebanon impede economic analysis and decision making. This paper presents a new coincident indicator and a leading indicator for the Lebanese economy. A new methodology, based on the National Bureau of Economic Research-Conference Board approach, was used to construct these indicators. The indicators can be used as monthly proxies for the evolution of real gross domestic product with a relatively small time lag (four to five months). Notwithstanding the relatively small sample period, the results reveal promising statistical properties that should make these new indications valuable coincident and leading (one-year ahead) indicators for analyzing the dynamics of the Lebanese economy. However, given limitations on the length of the gross domestic product time series in Lebanon, the accuracy of these indicators in tracking the business cycle of the Lebanese economy is expected to improve over time as more data points become available.

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AGROVOC Keywords

agriculture balance of payments business cycles businesses calibration commercial banks consumers debt decision making econometrics economic growth economic situation economic statistics electricity equations equipment expenditure exports gnp growth rate industrial production inflation insurance interest rates international bank manufacturing marketing open access private sector public administration public debt public finance real estate refugees remittances results returns unemployment

Bibliographic information

Publisher

World Bank, Washington, DC

Other Subjects

Net exports; Economic policy; Economic research; Personal income; Economic theory; Variable interest rate; Business environment; Macroeconomic variables; Employee; Financial sector; Interest rate; Significance level; Arima; Business cycle; Return; Telecom; Trade sector; Statistical significance; Customs; Transfer payments; Retail trade; Monetary fund; Real gdp; Agricultural sectors; Development policy; Consumer price index; Real gross domestic product; Financial services; Result; Reliability; Endogenous variables; Granger causality; Investment decisions; Labor force surveys; Economic index; Registration fees; Custom; Private sector investment; Confidence index; Data limitations; Property tax; Web; International finance; Checks; Government revenues; Interest payments; Forecasts; Capital expenditures; Consumer confidence; Credit outstanding; Economic activity; Time series; Gdp; Base year; Price dynamics; Raw data; Labor market; International standards; Unemployment rate; Benchmark; Real_estate; Expatriates; Derivatives; Bootstrap; Minimization; Leading indicators; Money supply; Expenditures; Monetary policy; Standard deviation; Deposits; Consumer credit

License

Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6950http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/CC BY 3.0 IGO

Source

Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6950

In AGRIS since: 2014-09-15

Format: AGRIS AP

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19374

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New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy

2014

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