New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy

Matta, Samer

New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy

2014

Matta, Samer

Weak economic statistics in Lebanon impede economic analysis and decision making. This paper presents a new coincident indicator and a leading indicator for the Lebanese economy. A new methodology, based on the National Bureau of Economic Research-Conference Board approach, was used to construct these indicators. The indicators can be used as monthly proxies for the evolution of real gross domestic product with a relatively small time lag (four to five months). Notwithstanding the relatively small sample period, the results reveal promising statistical properties that should make these new indications valuable coincident and leading (one-year ahead) indicators for analyzing the dynamics of the Lebanese economy. However, given limitations on the length of the gross domestic product time series in Lebanon, the accuracy of these indicators in tracking the business cycle of the Lebanese economy is expected to improve over time as more data points become available.

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AGROVOC Keywords

agriculture balance of payments business cycles businesses calibration commercial banks consumers debt decision making econometrics economic growth economic situation economic statistics electricity equations equipment expenditure exports gnp growth rate industrial production inflation insurance interest rates international bank manufacturing marketing open access private sector public administration public debt public finance real estate refugees remittances results returns unemployment

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Publisher

World Bank, Washington, DC

Other Subjects

Economic index; Credit outstanding; Data limitations; Business environment; Real_estate; Checks; International standards; Variable interest rate; Employee; Gdp; Net exports; Private sector investment; Expatriates; Base year; Economic research; Consumer price index; Labor market; Benchmark; Financial sector; Agricultural sectors; Web; Retail trade; Expenditures; Macroeconomic variables; Property tax; Economic activity; Endogenous variables; Consumer credit; Telecom; Economic theory; Interest rate; Customs; Return; Deposits; Development policy; Time series; Leading indicators; Real gdp; Trade sector; Personal income; Registration fees; Derivatives; Unemployment rate; International finance; Bootstrap; Minimization; Government revenues; Economic policy; Consumer confidence; Result; Transfer payments; Interest payments; Monetary policy; Business cycle; Standard deviation; Forecasts; Raw data; Financial services; Labor force surveys; Money supply; Confidence index; Real gross domestic product; Granger causality; Capital expenditures; Monetary fund; Arima; Investment decisions; Significance level; Price dynamics; Statistical significance; Reliability; Custom

License

Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6950http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/CC BY 3.0 IGO

Source

Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6950

In AGRIS since: 2014-09-15

Format: AGRIS AP

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19374

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New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy

2014

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