Impact of global warming on European cereal production.
2014
Höhn, J. G. | Rötter, R. P.
This review examines relevant impact assessments identified by a literature search from 1991 to date. A bibliographic search was applied to the CAB Abstracts database with a given search string. Resultant papers were checked for relevance, based on expert judgment. This yielded 91 papers, which were subjected to further analysis. Firstly, publication intensity over time and distribution by geographic location and cereal crop were examined. Next, for a given crop, the assessments and their outcomes were grouped by type and number of the change variables considered - that is, effects of climate change only, elevated CO<sub>2</sub> and technological progress (improved breeds, management). Finally, separately for individual countries/subregions and Europe as a whole, we examined whether and to what extent study results have changed over time, for example become more positive/negative. Based on our sample, we found that publication intensity increased exponentially during the last 4 years, the majority of studies are Europe-wide, but some concentrated on a few countries (Italy, Spain and UK), whereby studies on wheat are clearly most popular. Taking the factor of technological progress into account has an overruling influence on results. Finally, over time, projected yield impacts have become more negative. This is in line with finding from global analyses, as reflected by the most recent comparison of agricultural impact chapters, of the 4th and 5th Assessment Reports of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II. In the future, there is particular need to consider impacts under various incremental and transformational adaptation measures in more depth (e.g. their interconnections across scales) and with more breadth (e.g. anticipated new breeds). Follow-up reviews should also examine how projected impacts are changing with the new climate scenario data sets (CMIP5) and with improved impact models and assessment approaches.
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