Impact of land use on climate change
2018
Kocur-Bera, K., University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn (Poland)
The aim of the study was to develop a method for shaping the safe space of rural areas in view of the increasingly frequent extreme weather phenomena resulting from climate change. The study was carried out on the assumption that geographic data, which decrease or increase the risk of financial loss caused by extreme weather events, can be identified. A group of selected characteristics was used to construct a synthetic parameter for measuring an entity’s vulnerability to financial loss, based on the existing conditions in the evaluated area. The developed parameter was referred to as the vulnerability index, which value determines a community’s sensitivity to extreme weather phenomena. The vulnerability index was used in further analyses. In the next step of the study, changes in the values of the proposed index were evaluated in scenarios, where adaptive measures were and were not implemented. Three types of scenarios were analysed: baseline, optimistic and pessimistic. The adopted assumptions accounted for the possibility of future change in rural areas. The optimistic scenario was developed on the assumption that the undertaken adaptive measures would focus on greening in agricultural holdings and afforestation according to the concept proposed by the Polish government. The pessimistic scenario was developed on the assumption that human activities would not be adapted to climate change, while space would change according to the scenarios described by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and insurance companies. The results demonstrated that the vulnerability index will continue to increase, unless adaptive measures are undertaken. Therefore, adaptive measures have to be implemented to increase the resistance of entities to the losses caused by extreme weather phenomena.
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