Analiza i predviđanje proizvodnih parametara kupusa u Srbiji / Analysis and prediction of production paramaters of cabbage in Serbia
2016
Mutavdžić, Beba (Poljoprivredni fakultet, Novi Sad (Srbija)) | Novković, Nebojša (Poljoprivredni fakultet, Novi Sad (Srbija)) | Ilin, Žarko (Poljoprivredni fakultet, Novi Sad (Srbija))
In the period from 1980 to 2014 cabbage was grown on an average of more than 20,000 hectares. The average annual production of cabbage was at the level of about 300,000 tons, and the average yield was 14.4 t/ha. The aim of this paper is to predict trends in the production and prices of cabbage for the period 2015-2020. The ARIMA models are used for prediction. The results show that the area under cabbage will be reduced by 1,000 hectares, which will be reflected in the decrease in production, despite the tendency of yield to increase. The average real cabbage price in the period 1994-2014 was 164 euro/ton and the average parity price for cabbage/wheat was 1.49. Negative tendencies of cabbage price have been predicted for the forecast period as well. The predicted cabbage price in 2015 is 136 euro/ton, and in 2020 is 112 euro/ton. The parity price with wheat is 1.34 in 2015 and 1.01 in 2020.
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