Predicting aflatoxin content in peanuts using ambient temperature, soil temperature and soil moisture content during pod development

Higher than acceptable aflatoxin levels in peanut kernels (Arachis hypogaea L.) and related products isa worldwide food safety concern. Strict regulatory standards by major importers of peanuts limit themarketability of peanuts for many developing tropical countries including Zambia. The incidence of preharvestaflatoxins is strongly linked to soil and weather conditions during pod-development. This studyaimed to formulate statistical models to predict total aflatoxin content in peanut kernels using selectedenvironmental factors during pod development. Field experiments were conducted for two years duringwhich the peanut crop was exposed to 84 combinations of ambient temperature, soil temperature andsoil moisture content measured during the last 30 days of pod development. These data were used toformulate regression models to predict total aflatoxin content in peanut kernels. Simple linearregression models had R2 values of 0.30 for maximum ambient temperature, 0.24 for soil temperatureand 0.38 for soil moisture content. Combining soil moisture content and soil temperature in amultivariate regression model could explain 54% of the variation in total aflatoxin content while acombination of soil moisture content and maximum ambient temperature could only explain 46% of thevariation in total aflatoxin content

Muma Chalwe Hendrix et al., 'Predicting aflatoxin content in peanuts using ambient temperature, soil temperature and soil moisture content during pod development', African Journal of Plant Science, vol. 13(3), pp.59-69, Academic Journals, 2019