Historical floods of the Danube river in view of climate change
2019
Prohaska, Stevan | Pekarova, Pavla (https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1180-2215) | Ilić, Aleksandra
This paper presents the results of a statistical-stochastic analysis of a series of historical floods along the Danube River, registered in a period of more than 1000 years from 1012 until today. Relying on the historical floods estimating method, this period of over a thousand years can be divided into three characteristic subperiods: the Middle Ages – floods estimated based on archival material; period 1501–1820 – floods estimated based on high water traces and the period from 1821 until today – floods estimated based on official data provided by hydrometeorological services. Using all available data on historical floods, the basic statistical-stochastic analysis was performed, and the results of the analysis were linked to the data, which, according to different scenarios of climate change, are expected for the considered Danube sector.
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