Survival Analysis for Asphalt Pavement Performance and Assessment of Various Factors Affecting Fatigue Cracking Based on LTPP Data

Pavement performance is the ability of pavement to remain in an acceptable condition to serve the intended users over a period of time. There are several principal, combined factors that affect flexible pavement performance such as environmental conditions, pavement materials, and traffic loads. Vehicle overloading is considered one of the most significant causes of accelerating flexible pavement deterioration, reducing the pavement’s design life, and affecting the overall sustainability of the pavement system. Therefore, researchers are continuously examining pavement systems with a view to finding the most suitable solutions for sustainable development in road construction systems in order to reduce both costs and pollution. In this study, we present a framework to conduct nonparametric and parametric survival analysis for asphalt pavement test sections, to assess the influence of using reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) on fatigue service life, to indicate the most significant subset of risk factors (covariates), and to study the effect of overweight axles on flexible pavement performance. All the data concerned were extracted from the long-term pavement performance (LTPP) program. The Kaplan–Meier (KM) survival probability curves of multiple pavement distresses were developed to compare the failure probability for various distresses and to determine the median survival time for each distress. The fatigue survival curves for the test sections using RAP and virgin materials were developed separately and the equality of the two survival curves was tested and affirmed. Several parametric survival analyses were conducted to select the most significant subset of covariates. For fatigue cracking and, after dropping the insignificant predictors, a model was developed to show the quantitative relationship between fatigue failure time and potentially influential factors. The analysis indicated that the increase in the percentage of overloaded axles from 0% to 20% can reduce the fatigue survival life of flexible pavement by up to 55%. In the absence of overweight axles, a one-inch increase in asphalt layer thickness can extend the fatigue service life by about half a year. However, in the presence of 20% of overweight axles, a one-inch increase in thickness can extend the fatigue service life by only 0.22 years. Therefore, additional virgin materials and resources are needed to maintain traffic conditions in the road network and to compensate for the reduction in fatigue service life. Moreover, the effect of the increase in overweight axles from 0% to 15% on reducing the fatigue survival life is found to be similar to the effect of increasing the AADTT tenfold. Therefore, the sustainability of pavement is directly affected by the fatigue survival life.