Technology assessment of technical changes in dairy operations and milk production

Quality of technical changes in dairying has changed fundamentally labour input saving technologies are more and more supplemented by technologies with objectives such as improvement of labour quality, yield increases, and animal welfare. Acceptance of most of the newly developed technologies by farmers is likely. The micro-economic analysis shows cost reductions and productivity increases to the introduction of new technologies in dairy operations. Reduction in the number of cows in necessary after the introduction of a milk quota system due to a further increase of the milk yield/cow; therefore, factor input level, such as land, labour, and housing capacity will be released. General economic benefits can be expected due to the factor saving nature of most of the discussed technologies. Accelerated structural changes conceming number and size of operations are to be expected as a consequence of introducing new technologies; small size and, therefore, high cost producers will be forced out of business first. International competitiveness of German dairy farmers can only slowly be improved by applying new technologies due to traditionally unfavourable structural conditions. Negative consumer reactions are likely when gene- and bio-technologyare applied in milk production. Ecological advantages as well as disadvantages can be expected due to technical progress. It is most likely that a highly intensive milk production will continue within the FRG as well as in the EC. As a supplement, extensive beef production systems might be expanded to fulfil the demand for beef in the long run. Since application of new technologies is economic favourable at farm level, the degree of acceptance is expected to be high. Therefore, severe political measures are to be applied for steering the development inc luding measures of market and price policy, structural policy, and administrative regulations.