Grain yields forecasting using adaptation methods
1999
Bloch, Z. (Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation, Pulawy (Poland). Dept. of Mathematics and Informatics Application)
The paper presents forecasting of grain yields: winter wheat, spring wheat, winter barley, spring barley and rye. The results of four different time series methods were compared: simple exponential smoothing, Brown's linear exponential smoothing, Hotl's linear exponential smoothing and Hellwig's method. Yields forecasts were compared with statistical yields. The best results were obtained by the Hellwig's method for all time series. Generally, relative errors ex post were lower than 10 percent
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