Proyecciones de rabia canina en Argentina, Bolivia y Paraguay, usando series de tiempo
1997
SCORTTI, M.(Universidad Nacional del Litoral) | CATTAN, P.(Universidad de Chile) | CANALS, M.(Universidad de Chile)
English. Monthly prevalence of canine rabies in Argentina (1971-1993), Bolivia (1987-1993) and Paraguay (1976-1993) were analyzed to identify seasonal cycles of the disease. Moreover, data to forecast the evolution of rabies were studied. The time series analysis was employed. This included the Fourier Harmonie Analysis and Box-Jenkins ARIMA-SARIMA multiplicative models. Cycles were detected in Argentina and Paraguay. The seasonal cycles occurred at the end of winter and spring. Seasonal cycles were about every four years, and the next peak was estimated for 1997
Show more [+] Less [-]Spanish; Castilian. Se estudió el número de casos mensuales de rabia canina en Argentina (1971-1993), Bolivia (1987-1993) y Paraguay (1976-1993), a fin de identificar fluctuaciones regulares y predecir el comportamiento futuro de la rabia en dichos países. Los métodos empleados consistieron en análisis de series de tiempo, incluyendo el análisis armónico de Fourier y los modelos multiplicativos ARIMA-SARIMA de Box-Jenkins. Se evidenciaron ciclos en Argentina y Paraguay. La estacionalidad ocurrió a fines de invierno y primavera. Las recurrencias mostraron un período de aproximadamente cuatro años, pronosticándose la próxima alza para 1997
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