The Russia-Ukraine conflict and global food security

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, sparking fears of a global food crisis, IFPRI responded rapidly to the need for information and policy advice to address the crisis. From the first moments of the conflict, a new IFPRI blog series provided critical information and insights into the impacts on food security, caused by rising food, fertilizer, and fuel prices and trade disruptions, for vulnerable countries and regions. This book is a compilation of those blog posts, which include analysis of trade flows, tracking of food prices and policy responses, and results of impact modeling. Together, they provide an overview of how the crisis has progressed, how the international community and individual countries responded with efforts to ensure food security, and what we are learning about the best ways to ensure food security in the aftermath of a major shock to global food systems.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS FOREWORD INTRODUCTION SECTION 1: A Conflict with Global Consequences How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affect global food security? A food crisis was brewing even before the Ukraine war — but taking these three steps could help the most vulnerable The Russia-Ukraine war’s impact on global food markets: A historical perspective The Russia-Ukraine war is exacerbating international food price volatility No end in sight yet for the global food price crisis The impact of the Ukraine crisis on the global vegetable oil market High fertilizer prices contribute to rising global food security concerns The Russia-Ukraine war after a year: Impacts on fertilizer production, prices, and trade flows Is food price inflation really subsiding? Assessing tight global wheat stocks and their role in price volatility Ukraine one year later: Impacts on global food security SECTION 2: Policy Recommendations Do no harm: Measured policy responses are key to addressing food security impacts of the Ukraine crisis Short-term policy considerations to respond to Russia-Ukraine crisis disruptions in fertilizer availability and affordability The response to the global food crisis must address the needs of women and girls The global food price crisis threatens to cause a global nutrition crisis: New evidence from 1.27 million young children on the effects of inflation MC12: How to make the WTO relevant in the middle of a food price crisis Can the G7 be a force for good in the current global food security crisis? SECTION 3: Trade Policy Responses and Mitigation Options From bad to worse: How Russia-Ukraine war-related export restrictions exacerbate global food insecurity Food export restrictions have eased as the Russia-Ukraine war continues, but concerns remain for key commodities The Russia-Ukraine grain agreement: What is at stake? Suspension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative: What has the deal achieved, and what happens now? How sanctions on Russia and Belarus are impacting exports of agricultural products and fertilizer SECTION 4: Country Impacts and Responses Ukraine Regional war, global consequences: Mounting damages to Ukraine’s agriculture and growing challenges for global food security Middle East and North Africa The Russia-Ukraine crisis poses a serious food security threat for Egypt Food price shocks and diets among poor households in Egypt One of the world’s worst economic collapses, now compounded by the Ukraine crisis: What’s next for Lebanon? The Russian invasion of Ukraine threatens to further exacerbate the food insecurity emergency in Yemen Addressing the food crisis in Yemen: The private sector’s key role amid local conflict and global market disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine war Sub-Saharan Africa West Africa faces mixed food security impacts from the Russia-Ukraine conflict The Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to compound Sudan’s existing food security problems Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens food security in Malawi. How can the country respond The Russia-Ukraine crisis presents threats to Nigeria’s food security, but potential opportunities for the fertilizer, energy sectors Rising commodities prices driven by the Russia-Ukraine crisis threaten to undermine Kenya’s economy, increase poverty Asia How the war in Ukraine threatens Bangladesh’s food security Latin America Can agricultural exports from Southern Cone countries make up for global supply disruptions arising from the Russia-Ukraine war?

Non-PR

IFPRI4; Food Security Portal

Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI); Food and Nutrition Policy