Vegetation dynamics and its linkage with climatic and anthropogenic factors in the Dawen River Watershed of China from 1999 through 2018

The Dawen River Watershed (DRW), an important sub-basin of the Yellow River, has been experiencing substantial climatic and anthropogenic stresses. Identifying how stressors relate to shifts in vegetation growth is critical for maintaining the health and stability of its regional ecosystems. To address this, we constructed a 20-year dataset (1999–2018) reflecting changes in satellite-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), climate variables, and land use in the DRW. We then used time series, principal component, and partial correlation analyses to detect spatial and temporal patterns in vegetation dynamics over time, as well as linkages with temperature, precipitation, and anthropogenic activities. Over 20 years, the DRW exhibited a warming-greening trend and experienced four regime shifts in its climate-vegetation system, roughly centered on 2001, 2006, 2013, and 2016. Both the average and maximum NDVI increased in all seasons, likely due to favorable changes in seasonal climatic conditions. Temperature was the dominant factor promoting vegetative growth in spring, autumn, and throughout the growing season. Precipitation had a considerable positive effect on the average NDVI during the summer. Spatial analyses indicated that 67.94% of the study area exhibited significant increase in NDVI values over time, mainly locating in the mountains and in Dongping County; Significant NDVI decrease was generally located in the urban expansion areas around cities and counties. Land cover types and annual growth cycles appeared to govern spatial patterns and the extent of variation in vegetation growth, followed by land use–related drivers and climate anomalies. These findings offer an insight on appropriate ecological management and climatic adaptation within the Dawen River Watershed.