Predicting the potential global distribution of Sapindus mukorossi under climate change based on MaxEnt modelling

Sapindus mukorossi (S. mukorossi) is an important biological washing material and biomass energy tree species whose peel is rich in saponins, and its kernels have a high oil content. We used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to predict the suitable habitats of S. mukorossi globally, screen the dominant environmental factors affecting its distribution and analyse the changes in its suitable habitats under climate change from prehistory to the future, and the results will provide a scientific basis for germplasm resource collection, protection, introduction and cultivation. Twenty-two environmental variables and global distribution data for S. mukorossi were used to construct the species distribution model, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to verify the accuracy of the model. The dominant environmental factors were screened through the jackknife method, and then, the geographical information system (ArcGIS) was used to complete the grade of suitable habitat division and area calculation. The results showed that the MaxEnt model had an excellent predictive effect, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) value was as high as 0.969. The precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), temperature seasonality (Bio4) and isothermality (Bio3) were the dominant environmental factors that affected the distribution of S. mukorossi. The largest area of the world’s suitable habitats occurred during the last interglacial (LIG) (772.69 × 10⁴ km²), and the area decreased sharply (614.46 × 10⁴ km²) during the last glacial maximum (LGM). The area of suitable habitat showed an increasing trend during the Mid-Holocene (MH) and currently, with areas of 631.06 × 10⁴ km² and 706.82 × 10⁴ km², respectively. The area of suitable habitats for S. mukorossi globally was 718.35 × 10⁴ km² (SSP1-2.6), 636.85 × 10⁴ km² (SSP2-4.5), 657.64 × 10⁴ km² (SSP3-7.0) and 675.89 × 10⁴ km² (SSP5-8.5) under the four scenarios of the future climate. The area increased only in the SSP1 scenario. In summary, globally, the suitable area of S. mukorossi tended to migrate to higher latitudes and decrease in area with future climate change.