Predicting Current and Future Distribution of Endangered Tree Dracaena ombet Kotschy and Peyr. Under Climate Change
2017
Robiansyah, Iyan | Hajar, Abdulrahaman S.
The endangered tree Dracaena ombet Kotschy and Peyr. (Asparagaceae) is a native of Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, Somalia and Sudan. The tree has been experiencing population decline throughout its native ranges due to overgrazing, attack by pathogens, human overexploitation, and climate change. The conservation actions for this tree are hindered due to poor information on its geographical distribution. Using published occurrence data, current and future distribution of D. ombet under climate change was predicted in the present study using MaxEnt. The model performed better than random with area under the curve and true skill statistical values were 0.979 ± 0.034 and 0.724 ± 0.419, respectively. The tree was predicted to be found on mountain chain around the Red Sea with slope and precipitation being the most influential factors. Future prediction of D. ombet showed major loss of habitat in Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan. In Saudi Arabia, however, most of the population could deal with future climate and some population even could expand their ranges to higher latitude. The results from the present study can be used as a basis for further detailed survey of D. ombet and for planning the conservation actions needed to conserve the species, especially in dealing with future climate change.
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