A Model for Iberian Wolf (Canis lupus signatus, Cabrera 1907) Predation Risk Assessment on Cattle in the Central System (Spain)

As a consequence of the exponential increase of the demographic and technological development of the human being, conflicts with the natural environment are accentuated. Pollution or the loss of biodiversity represent examples of problems that we must face to maintain the balance between the evolution of human beings and the conservation of nature. However, there are conflicts whose origin is not as modern as those mentioned, and we return to the Neolithic to find the origin of the conflict of man with the great predators. This condition has existed since then and at this point in history, is reaching very high levels of tension in developed countries, as a result of the depredation of livestock. Wolf is one of the species that generates more conflict and is currently suffering a slight demographic expansion. Although current laws mostly seek their recovery and conservation, the wolf is experiencing great difficulties due to the poor social perception it has. Faced with this situation, a model has been developed using geographic information systems which categorizes the areas according to their probability that the cattle could suffer a wolf attack. Based on natural and anthropogenic variables of the environment, the areas with a greater or lesser probability of attack were evaluated, with the objective of designing a prevention plan to reduce or eliminate the attacks. Since different authors demonstrate that population control measures on the species are not effective in reducing attacks on livestock, the solution to the conflict should be based on preventive measures. The use of the designed model will enable the competent authorities to apply these measures optimally, reducing expenses and allowing to anticipate future areas of conflict.