The role of modelling in resource management within the livelihood-conservation nexus: A socio-ecological systems approach to Sand Forest harvesting, Northern KwaZulu-Natal

Divergences between community livelihoods and conservation efforts often result in changes to the access and use of natural capital in affected areas, negatively affecting the respective livelihoods. New tools and interdisciplinary approaches are more frequently required for solving these conflicts. In this paper, the socio-ecological systems (SES) perspective along with Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) have been used to model the interdependencies that exist within the livelihood-conservation nexus to determine if this method can improve synergy between community livelihood requirements and conservation targets in an era of unsustainable decline of natural resources, using the livelihood-conservation nexus of informal Sand Forest harvesting in Northern KwaZulu-Natal as a case study. Results suggest BBNs have great potential for use in socio-ecological and resource management studies concerning the livelihood-conservation nexus. The results of the sensitivity analysis of the BBN showed that employment and income are the greatest socio-economic drivers in terms of Sand Forest harvesting, while preference (i.e. behaviour) for energy sources and building materials has the greatest overall influence on Sand Forest usage. The BBN scenario comparison further demonstrated the influence of preference (i.e. behaviour) on the SES. Finally, the conservation effectiveness assessment using the BBN showed the significant contribution of accessibility and availability of Sand Forest (i.e. conservation) to the system. Information provided by the BBN allowed for suitable areas for conservation to be identified given conservation targets and the utilisation needs of the communities (i.e. greater synergy), through the mapping of two livelihood management approaches (i.e. community conservation and formal conservation). The results of mapping the different management objectives have shown that community conservation is more suitable for moving the system towards synergy and should be considered for a Sand Forest resource management approach to compliment any conservation planning.