Method for assessing coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model and unascertained measure theory

Wu, Qiang; Zhao, Dekang; Wang, Yang; Shen, Jianjun; Mu, Wenping; Liu, Honglei

Method for assessing coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model and unascertained measure theory | Méthode pour évaluer le risque d’intrusion d’eau au niveau du plancher des mines de charbon à partir d’un modèle à pondération de variables et de la théorie des mesures non déterminées Método para evaluar el riesgo de inundación de agua en un suelo de carbón basado en el modelo de peso variable y una teoría de mediciones inciertas 基于变权模型与未确知测度理论的煤层底板突水危险性评价 Método para a avaliação do risco de intrusão de água em assoalho carbonífero no modelo de ponderação variável e teoria de medidas não determinadas

2017

Water inrush from coal-seam floors greatly threatens mining safety in North China and is a complex process controlled by multiple factors. This study presents a mathematical assessment system for coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model (VWM) and unascertained measure theory (UMT). In contrast to the traditional constant-weight model (CWM), which assigns a fixed weight to each factor, the VWM varies with the factor-state value. The UMT employs the confidence principle, which is more effective in ordered partition problems than the maximum membership principle adopted in the former mathematical theory. The method is applied to the Datang Tashan Coal Mine in North China. First, eight main controlling factors are selected to construct the comprehensive evaluation index system. Subsequently, an incentive-penalty variable-weight model is built to calculate the variable weights of each factor. Then, the VWM-UMT model is established using the quantitative risk-grade divide of each factor according to the UMT. On this basis, the risk of coal-floor water inrush in Tashan Mine No. 8 is divided into five grades. For comparison, the CWM is also adopted for the risk assessment, and a differences distribution map is obtained between the two methods. Finally, the verification of water-inrush points indicates that the VWM-UMT model is powerful and more feasible and reasonable. The model has great potential and practical significance in future engineering applications.

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