Spatial lag effect of aridity and nitrogen deposition on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) damage

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) is a widespread tolerant forest tree-species; however, its adaptability to environmental change differs among sites with various buffering capacity. In this study, we compared the spatial effects of aridity index (AI) and nitrogen deposition (ND) on biomass density in natural and man-made pine stands of differing soil fertility using geographically weighted multiple lag regression. Soil fertility was defined using soil series as zonal trophic (27.9%), acidic (48.2%), gleyed (15.2%) and as azonal exposed (2.5%), maple (2.4%), ash (0.8%), wet (2.1%) and peat (0.9%) under pine stands in the Czech Republic (Central Europe; 4290.5 km²; 130–1298 m a.s.l.). Annual AI and ND in every pine stand were estimated by intersection between raster and vector from 1 × 1 km grid for years 2000, 2003, 2007 and 2010 of severe non-specific forest damage spread. Biomass density was obtained from a MODIS 250 × 250 m raster using the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) for years 2000–2015, with a decrease in EVI indicating non-specific damage. Environmental change was assessed by comparing predictor values at EVI time t and t+λ. Non-specific damage was registered over 51.9% of total forest area. Less than 8.8% of damaged stands were natural and the rest (91.2%) of damaged stands were man-made. Pure pine stands were more damaged than mixed. The ND effect prevailed up to 2007, while AI dominated later. Temporal increasing ND effect under AI effectiveness led to the most significant pine stand damage in 2008 and 2014. Predictors from 2000 to 2007 afflicted 58.5% of non-specifically damaged stands at R² 0.09–0.76 (median 0.38), but from 2000 to 2010 afflicted 57.1% of the stands at R² 0.16–0.75 (median 0.40). The most damaged stands occurred on acidic sites. Mixed forest and sustainable management on natural sites seem as effective remediation reducing damage by ND.