A blessing in disguise: new insights on the effect of COVID-19 on the carbon emission, climate change, and sustainable environment
2022
Sarfraz, Muddassar | Mohsin, Muhammad | Naseem, Sobia
COVID-19, declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) to be a pandemic, has affected greenhouse gas emissions and contributed to the uncertainty of environmental activities. This study demonstrates the effect of lockdowns, the number of new confirmed cases, and the number of newly confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 on CO₂ emissions. The data series used are for the UK from 23 March 2020 to 31 December 2020 and for Spain from 14 March 2020 to 31 December 2020. This research adopted the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test for a stationarity check of the data series, the Johansen cointegration test for determining cointegration among variables, and the vector error correction model (VEC) Granger causality test for directional cause and effect between exogenous and endogenous variables. The VEC model shows a bidirectional relationship between CO₂ emissions and lockdown and a unidirectional relationship with newly confirmed cases and deaths for the UK. The results of Spain confirmed the unidirectional relationship of CO₂ emissions, lockdown, new confirmed cases, and deaths. The Granger causality test reconfirms the relationship of variables except for newly confirmed deaths for the UK and newly confirmed cases for Spain. Conclusively, the pandemic breakout reduced the emission of CO₂. The directional relation of variables supported the short-run relationship of CO₂ emissions with newly confirmed cases and deaths, while a long- and short-run relationship was shown with lockdown. The directional and relational behavior of lockdown potentially linked the CO₂ emissions with daily life activities.
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