Integrating Modelling and Expert Knowledge for Evaluating Current and Future Scenario of Large Cardamom Crop in Eastern Nepal
2019
Maharjan, Sajana | Qamer, Faisal Mueen | Matin, Mir | Joshi, Govinda | Bhuchar, Sanjeev
Large Cardamom (Amomum subulatum Roxb.) is one of the most valuable cash crop of the Himalayan mountain region including Nepal, India, and Bhutan. Nepal is the world’s largest producer of the crop while the Taplejung district contributes a 30%–40% share in Nepal’s total production. Large cardamom is an herbaceous perennial crop usually grown under the shade of the Uttis tree in very specialized bioclimatic conditions. In recent years, a decline in cardamom production has been observed which is being attributed to climate-related indicators. To understand the current dynamics of this under-canopy herbaceous crop distribution and its future potential under climate change, a combination of modelling, remote sensing, and expert knowledge is applied for the assessment. The results suggest that currently, Uttis tree cover is 10,735 ha in the district, while 50% (5198 ha) of this cover has a large cardamom crop underneath. When existing cultivation is compared with modelled suitable areas, it is observed that the cultivatable area has not yet reached its full potential. In a future climate scenario, the current habitat will be negatively affected, where mid elevations will remain stable while lower and higher elevation will become infeasible for the crop. Future changes are closely related to temperature and precipitation which are steadily changing in Nepal over time.
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