Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on boreal forest climate change mitigation
2014
Sjølie, Hanne K. | Latta, Greg S. | Solberg, Birger
• CONTEXT : The Kyoto Protocol allows the use of domestic forest carbon sequestration to offset emissions to a limited degree, while bioenergy as an unlimited emission reduction option receives substantial financial support in many countries. • AIM : The primary objective of this study was to analyze (1) whether these limits on forest carbon sequestration would be binding, thereby leading to inefficient mitigation, and (2) the total potential effect of the protocol on the greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in the forest sector. • METHODS : A partial equilibrium model of the Norwegian forest sector was used to quantify the GHG fluxes in a base scenario with no climate policy, a Kyoto Protocol policy (KP policy), and a policy with no cap on forest carbon sequestration (FC policy), assuming that the policies apply the rest of the century. • RESULTS : Carbon offsets are higher under the KP policy than in the base scenario and likewise higher than under the FC policy in the short run, but the KP policy fails to utilize the forest carbon sequestration potential in the long run as it provides considerably less incentives to invest in forestry than the FC policy. • CONCLUSION : The KP increases the Norwegian forest sector’s climate change mitigation compared to no climate policy but less in the long run than a carbon policy with no cap on forest carbon credits.
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