Spatiotemporal variations and determinants of water pollutant discharge in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China: A spatial econometric analysis

Water pollution is an urgent problem that needs to be controlled via green transformation and the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). Based on the water pollutant discharge and socio-economic database of prefecture-level cities in the YREB from 2011 to 2015, this study explores the spatiotemporal variations in water pollutant discharge in the YREB via two main indicators: chemical oxygen demand (COD) and ammonia nitrogen (NH₃–N). Further, the spatial effects and determinants of water pollutant discharge are quantitatively estimated. The results show that (1) the water pollutant discharge in the YREB has decreased significantly, with the COD and NH₃–N discharge reduced by 10.46% and 10.79%, respectively, and the discharge reduction in the lower reaches was the most prominent; (2) the spatial pattern of water pollutant discharge in the YREB was generally stable and partially improved, and cities with a high rate of water pollutant reduction in the YREB were distributed in the main stream region of the Yangtze River and the intersection of the main stream and tributaries; (3) spatial effects had a significant impact on water pollutant discharge in the YREB, with regional cooperation and economic radiation through environmental management and control initially showing a combined reduction trend in regional water pollutants; and (4) determinants of population size and agricultural economic share declined to varying degrees at the end of the study period, although the urbanization level continued to increase, indicating that urbanization in the YREB occurred too quickly and that water pollutant discharge reduction was limited. However, economic development leading to the deterioration of the water environment was alleviated. In addition, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and rapid industrialization processes must be monitored to increase the reduction in characteristic water pollutants.