Forecasting Supply and Demand of the Wooden Furniture Industry in China
2019
Lin, Meng | Zhang, Zongli | Cao, Yukun
China is the world's largest furniture producer and exporter, but its furniture industry has always been at the bottom of the global value chain. Wooden furniture is the most important component of China's furniture industry. Its capacity and scale have been expanding; however, the industry's income and profit growth rate have declined. China's wooden furniture industry is in a period of transition, and industry regulators, participants, and even investors need to understand the future development trends of the industry. This study collected time series data for annual sales as well as the value of output, exports, and imports of the wooden furniture industry in China and used the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict future market supply and demand. The study found that each figure will continue to grow over the next 5 years. However, the industry as a whole will face the challenge of oversupply. In addition, the domestic market share on behalf of industrial competitiveness will decline year by year. Through a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the changing trend of China's wooden furniture production and its domestic and foreign markets, this study is the first to predict the supply and demand of research, filling the gap in the research field of wooden furniture, and its research ideas have some innovation. It can provide a reference for industry regulators, enterprise decision makers, and domestic and foreign investors.
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