Analysis of the current situation and future outlooks for pigeon pea (Cajanus Cajan) production in Oyo State, Nigeria: A Markov Chain model approach

Pigeon pea is an underutilized crop in Nigeria and particularly in Oyo State in terms of research, production and utilization despite its economic and nutrition importance. It is therefore important to understand its current production status in Oyo State in order to evaluate the economic potential of pigeon pea production in the study area. This study therefore, profiled the current production systems of pigeon pea, analyzed the current and forecast the future farm size and examined the constraints to pigeon pea production in Oyo State. Multistage sampling procedure was used to select 150 pigeon pea farmers. A structured questionnaire was used to gather primary data from the respondents. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Markov Chain Analysis (MCA) and Importance Ranking Index. The study found that all the farmers still cultivated local variety with average yield of 604kg/acre, most farmers intercropped with other crops and produced mainly for consumption by households and sale at the local market. Majority (73%) cultivated between 1 and 5 acres of land and on the average, 1.55 and 1.72 acres of land were cultivated in 2017/2018 and 2018/2019, respectively. There was significant difference between the land area cultivated to pigeon pea in 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 (−1.63, p < 0.05). The results of MCA revealed that there was high probability for the farmers to remain on their farm size initially cultivated. Although, gradual increase in the farm size was observed in the equilibrium year. The persuasive identified constraints included inadequate capital, pricing problem and lack of improved variety. The study concluded that the outlook of pigeon pea production seems promising as revealed by the farm size cultivated at the equilibrium year, but a deliberate effort must be made to promote the production of and research on pigeon pea in the study area, especially in the development of improved varieties.