El impacto de los caudales medioambientales en la satisfacción de la demanda de agua bajo escenarios de cambio climático
2015
The increasing use of water resources in order to meet the different demands of a system, often above their water availability has led to inadequate attention to such demands, as well as, has generated a reduction in environmental flows needed to achieve good water status. In the long term, these problems may be intensified under climate change scenarios. An adequate attention of the system demands without affecting the environment is one of the main objectives of the water resources management. The consideration of the environmental flows can influence the sensitivity of a system when addressing the different demands. This paper focuses on assessing this sensitivity to long term by using two efficiency indicators, which ones allow to identify water scarcity problems under different scenarios of flows reduction. Environmental requirements are determined by taking into account the monthly and annual distributions of the flows for different future scenarios. The proposed methodology is applied to the Guadalquivir basin in Spain. The results show that the current water scarcity problems of the basin can be intensified when the environmental requirements are considered in the system. These problems could be reduced or even eliminated, if water consumption is limited below the water availability of the basin, especially in the resources for agriculture.
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