Conceptual and numerical models for sustainable groundwater management in the Thaphra area, Chi River Basin, Thailand

Conceptual and numerical models for sustainable groundwater management in the Thaphra area, Chi River Basin, Thailand | Modèles conceptuels numériques de gestion durable de la nappe dans la région de Thaphra, Bassin de la Rivière Chi, Thaïlande Modelos conceptual y numérico para la gestión sustentable de agua subterránea en el área de Thaphra, cuenca del Río Chi, Tailandia 泰国 Chi River 流域 Thaphra 地区的地下水可持续管理的概念和数值模型 Modelos conceptuais e numéricos destinados à gestão sustentável da água subterrânea na área de Thaphra, Bacia do Rio Chi, Tailândia

2012

Sustainable management of groundwater resources is vital for development of areas at risk from water-resource over-exploitation. In northeast Thailand, the Phu Thok aquifer is an important water source, particularly in the Thaphra area, where increased groundwater withdrawals may result in water-level decline and saline-water upconing. Three-dimensional finite-difference flow models were developed with MODFLOW to predict the impacts of future pumping on hydraulic heads. Four scenarios of pumping and recharge were defined to evaluate the system response to future usage and climate conditions. Primary model simulations show that groundwater heads will continue to decrease by 4–12 m by the year 2040 at the center of the highly exploited area, under conditions of both increasing pumping and drought. To quantify predictive uncertainty in these estimates, in addition to the primary conceptual model, three alternative conceptual models were used in the simulation of sustainable yields. These alternative models show that, for this case study, a reasonable degree of uncertainty in hydrostratigraphic interpretation is more impactful than uncertainty in recharge distribution or boundary conditions. The uncertainty-analysis results strongly support addressing conceptual-model uncertainty in the practice of groundwater-management modeling. Doing so will better assist decision makers in selecting and implementing robust sustainable strategies.

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