Analysis of Cultivar-Use Options with Sugarcane as Influenced by Threats of New Pests
1986
Glaz, B. | Alvarez, J. | Miller, J. D.
In many sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) production areas, there are one or at most a few outstanding cultivars. However, one cultivar is rarely grown on more than 70% of an area because of the perceived risk that a new pest or a new strain or race of an established pest could cause devastating losses if the most widely grown cultivar is susceptible. The objective of this study is to present a model that will allow sugarcane growers to use their commercial data and their predictions on the levels of yield losses due to a new pest, and what percentage of their cultivars will be susceptible to the new pest, to determine how to allocate their land among different cultivars. To establish a reference point, a 20-yr period for a grower producing four cultivars was assumed. One cultivar had a yield level 5% higher than the other three cultivars, which were all equal in yield. It was assumed that during the 20-yr period there would be one new pest that would cause a 20% yield reduction in the best and one other cultivar. Under these assumptions, it was found that the best option was to grow the highest-yielding cultivar on 88% of the available land. It was concluded that sugarcane growers do not make optimum use of their best cultivar.
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