Improved anthropogenic heat flux model for fine spatiotemporal information in Southeast China

Anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) is an important driver of urban heat islands (UHIs). Further, both urban thermal environment research and sustainable development planning require an efficient estimation of anthropogenic heat flux (AHF). Therefore, this study proposed an improved multi-source AHF model, which was constructed using diverse data sources and small-scale samples, to better represent the spatiotemporal distribution of AHF. The performances of three machine learning algorithms (Cubist, gradient boosting decision tree, and simple linear regression) were quantitatively evaluated, and the impact of spatiotemporal heterogeneity on AHF estimation was considered for the first time. The results showed that multi-source datasets and sophisticated algorithms could more effectively reduce the estimation error and improve the accuracy of the spatiotemporal distribution of AHF than simple linear regression. In practical applications, the Cubist model performed better, with prediction errors being less than 0.9 W⋅m−2. Further, the characteristics of different heat sources from the model outputs varied widely, and the building metabolic heat exhibited significant seasonal spatiotemporal variations, which were largely determined by the regional climate. In contrast, industrial and transportation heat showed marginal monthly fluctuations. Similarly, spatiotemporal heterogeneity significantly affected the estimation of building metabolic heat (0.62 W⋅m−2), but it did not affect other heat sources. The proposed improved AHF model was verified to effectively capture the spatiotemporal variations of building heat and solve the issue of overestimation of industrial heat in urban regions. This study provides new methods and ideas for the accurate spatiotemporal quantification of AHF that can supplement future studies on climate warming, UHI, and air pollution.