Estimating the burden of market loss due to aflatoxins in maize: methods and estimates for Thailand
2015
Lubulwa, G.A.S. | Siriacha, P. | Markwell, P.J. | Pitt, J.I.
This communication updates and enhances earlier estimates of the burden of market loss associated with aflatoxin contamination of maize in Thailand using two unrelated data sets. The first, supplied by Mars Petcare (Thailand) Ltd. was compiled in 2010 from two sets of 295 random samples of maize, one collected at harvest and the second after drying, from two regions that produce more than 70% of the commercially grown maize in Thailand. The second data set was compiled between 1989 and 1993 under a collaborative research project funded by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation and project partner countries in South East Asia. It provides aflatoxin concentrations in 108 maize samples randomly selected from retail markets in Thailand. This study shows that, even with the low aflatoxin levels found in the first data set, a burden of economic loss in Thailand exists, estimated here at about US$ 6.9 million per annum (about 0.05% of agricultural sector gross domestic product in Thailand in 2009). If the higher aflatoxin levels in the second data set are representative, then the burden of economic loss in Thailand could exceed US$ 100 million per annum (about 0.85% of agricultural sector gross domestic product), based on 2009 production and prices data. Most of the losses are borne by producers of chicken meat, eggs, pig meat, duck meat, freshwater fish, milk and maize, in descending order of magnitude of loss. This communication enhances earlier estimates by broadening the scope to include milk and fresh water fish, by disaggregating poultry meat into chicken and duck meat, and by extending the analysis to cover the impacts of aflatoxins under a low aflatoxin level scenario.
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