An expert system for the management of Botrytis cinerea in Australian vineyards. II. Validation
1998
Ellison, P. | Ash, G. | McDonald, C.
An expert system developed by Ellison et al. (1997) for the management of Botrytis cinerea in Australian vineyards was validated against actual vineyard practices and official recommendations for control of the pathogen, using historical test cases from grapegrowing regions in southern New South Wales and from the Riverland region of South Australia. Performance of the expert system was judged on its ability to reduce unnecessary spray applications in seasons free from disease and to improve the timing of spray applications when conditions favoured disease development. In the test cases where disease did not develop, the expert system recommended between two and five sprays. This was comparable to the number of recommendations by official sources of advice but was excessive compared to actual vineyard practice where no sprays were applied. Reasons for the over-recommendation of sprays by the expert system were proposed. In the test cases where B. cinerea was observed, the expert system recommended a comparable number of sprays to grower practice and fewer sprays than official sources. With regard to timing of spray applications, the expert system was the only source of knowledge where spray recommendations bore any relationship to critical periods in the epidemiology of B. cinerea. Problems encountered in the validation of the expert system are discussed.
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