China’s power transition under the global 1.5 °C target: preliminary feasibility study and prospect
2020
Xu, Yan | Yang, Kun | Yuan, Jiahai
Based on the 1.5 °C temperature control target of the Paris Agreement, the two scenarios in this paper which are 1.5 degree scenario (1.5DS) and 2 degree scenario (2DS) aim to analyze the CO₂ emission space and power transition path constrains of the power sector in China. This paper then discusses the possible scenarios of 1.5DS and 2DS power planning schemes in 2050. The conclusions are as follows: (1) China’s electricity consumption saturation period will occur during the period of 2030–2040; (2) Driven by technology learning, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of wind power will have obvious competitive advantages in 2020 and so does solar power in 2030. However, due to the impact of additional grid connection costs of new energy power, economic advantages can only be obtained in the power market after at least 10 years; (3) The installed capacity of coal power in 1.5DS and 2DS will peak in 2020, and CO₂ emissions will also peak in 2020, then it shows a trend of decreasing year by year. However, it should be noted that 1.5DS is with possibilities, but with enormous challenges as the same time; (4) Accelerating the green and low carbon transition of power sector must be gradually improving the power market and electricity price mechanism, providing a good transition environment for the power sector, developing emerging power technology, and promoting multi-energy complementary systems.
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