Energy business transformation & Earth system resilience: A metabolic approach

At present, an energy transition consistent with achieving the goals set out by the Paris climate agreement is not occurring, primarily due to lock-in dynamics at the societal and energy business complex level. To contribute to discussions on how to unlock a major system transformation, we introduce here a new framework that characterises the energy business as a system and traces its metabolism. Drawing analogies with biology and using metabolic maps, we present a systems analysis across-scales; from the Earth system down to the energy business purpose level. Our analysis shows energy directors and managers face unfavourable conditions that inhibit radical business model decisions consistent with safely achieving emission targets. One such condition is how the intensity of the Earth system feedback signal is significantly reduced by the time it arrives at the corporate decision-making level, primarily due to social information filters and corporate law. Secondly, the shareholder profit maximisation purpose of companies is found to hold a systemic role in the energy business lock-in and may be incompatible with avoiding dangerous climate change. To achieve an energy transformation that safeguards Earth system resilience, our discussion suggests focusing on the intrinsic purpose and governance of the system, arguing that relying on external economic adjustments alone, such as carbon pricing, may help but could fall short of achieving the necessary shift. Fundamental Earth stewardship is needed from energy business actors. Like with nationally determined contributions (i.e. INDCs), a bottom-up approach to proposing contributions to climate-consistent business model pathways may facilitate the dialogue.