Spatial–temporal variation of climate and its impact on winter wheat production in Guanzhong Plain, China

Understanding the response mechanism winter wheat growth in response to climate change is critical for winter wheat production and field management. Therefore, in this study, we employed relative contribution and path analysis along with a crop model and remote sensing data to investigate to the effect of climate on winter wheat production for the 2009–2019 period in China’s Guanzhong Plain (GZP). We registered three key findings. First, winter wheat yield and water use efficiency (WUE) were increasing in the central-south and eastern GZP and were decreasing in the central-north and western GZP. Average temperature (Tₐᵥg) influenced winter wheat production by shorting vegetative and reproductive stage. Net solar radiation (Rₙ) and sunshine hours (Ssh) affected winter wheat production by altering irrigation requirements (IRs), and precipitation (P) had a strong correlation with yield and WUE despite a limited contribution. Second, climatic factors were not independent, and they affected each other; Tₐᵥg and P mainly affected winter wheat production through Rₙ and Ssh. Finally, approximately 90% of the variation in yield and WUE of winter wheat could be explained by IRs and phenology, the yield and WUE decreased with an increase in IRs, and the prolongation of the reproductive stage exerted a positive effect on winter wheat production and effectively offset the negative effect of the shortening of the vegetative stage. This means that the adoption of long-lasting winter wheat varieties and high irrigation levels in a changing climate benefit winter wheat production and may be a viable strategy for adaptation to climate change. The results provide potentially valuable information for alleviating the impact of climate change on winter wheat production and improving the planting management of winter wheat in the GZP.